by Rod Sager
The market is moving into full 'Spring Fever' mode. Buyers are out in force and well priced listings are gone in two days. This kind of frantic buyer behavior is tempered a bit by the tighter lending practices of today versus the wild and crazy mid 2000's.
It seems like the buyers are sensing a shift in the wind. They are not as hesitant as they were in 2010-2013 to jump into this market. Mortgage rates remain very low and prices are starting to move upward at a fairly quick pace.
Buyers looking for a less frantic experience may want to seek properties that are either a little over priced or not quite move-in ready. These properties tend to hang around a little longer and sellers will get "real" and come to terms at a good price.
My concern for my buyers is that they are in danger of being priced out of the market. Everyone wants that turn key property that doesn't need any work but the value is that light fixer or that clean but dated house. Perimeter areas like Yacolt, Amboy and La Center are now seeing activity as well. Areas further out often enjoy a spike in popularity as people get priced out of the market in close.
The market is heating up and the kettle is starting to boil...
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Showing posts with label rising. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rising. Show all posts
Monday, April 28, 2014
Monday, August 19, 2013
July's MLS sales figures for Clark County were stellar
By Rod Sager (from Real Estate with Realtor Rod, August 16th, 2013)
The numbers are in for July from our local multiple listing service and they look great. Looking back first at last year, July 2012 was healthy but not stellar. Inventory was starting to tighten up and demand was strong enough in certain segments to generate multiple offers. 499 transactions were closed in July 2012 for Clark County against this year's total of 696. We are still well off the frenzied pace of 2005-2007 but clearly the best we've seen since "the crash".
Evaluating numbers is never as easy as just looking at the one or two "big" stats. Often people, including some Realtors®, look at median price or total unit sales as an indicator that all market segments are moving equally. Just because the median price is up 21% by no means suggests that any random house that was sold last year is now worth 21% more this year. The real estate market is very complex with neighborhood fluctuations, locations, home size, price range, and styles often performing independent of each other based on market demand or supply.
The chart below shows the "big" over all county stats for this local market and then breaks the numbers down a little further to show some broad segment trends. The big question for John and Sally homeowner is often geared towards, "can I sell MY house right now"? If John and Sally own a condo they may not be much better off this year than they were last year in market appreciation. The condo market is almost always late to recover.
Last year the sales figures were heaviest in the entry level market. Those $125-150k three bedroom ramblers were being snatched up and as such, supply tightened up and prices soared. This year that market segment was priced high enough that demand slowed down a little, but the middle market surged with larger four bedroom houses seeing significant increases in unit sales. Those bigger mid sized homes saw a massive 59% increase in sales but a more modest 13% increase in median price.
Last year I said that the bottom has to tighten up first before the middle can take off. Well, the bottom did tighten up and now the middle is taking off this year. That is driving the increase in median price. The smaller two bedroom houses have peaked with only a 1.3% increase in median price despite a large surge in unit sales of 46%. Even the bread and butter three bedroom market that was red hot last year, is showing preliminary indications that the buyers are nearing their limits. The 18% increase in median against a large surge of 29% in units sold is still quite robust, however. The sellers in the entry level often move up to that bigger house and as they sell their 2 and 3 bedroom homes they move into the middle market. The 59% increase in unit sales in that segment will likely produce more impressive median increases when we check the numbers in a few months.
Of course this discussion has to hinge on keeping other complex variables favorable, such as the general economy, jobs and the ever critical mortgage rates.
The big takeaway for homeowners is the fact that their home that may have been upside down or too tight to sell, could in fact be a seller today. Contact your favorite Realtor® for a Comparative Market Analysis on your home. Most offer this service for no charge, I certainly will.
The numbers are in for July from our local multiple listing service and they look great. Looking back first at last year, July 2012 was healthy but not stellar. Inventory was starting to tighten up and demand was strong enough in certain segments to generate multiple offers. 499 transactions were closed in July 2012 for Clark County against this year's total of 696. We are still well off the frenzied pace of 2005-2007 but clearly the best we've seen since "the crash".
Evaluating numbers is never as easy as just looking at the one or two "big" stats. Often people, including some Realtors®, look at median price or total unit sales as an indicator that all market segments are moving equally. Just because the median price is up 21% by no means suggests that any random house that was sold last year is now worth 21% more this year. The real estate market is very complex with neighborhood fluctuations, locations, home size, price range, and styles often performing independent of each other based on market demand or supply.
The chart below shows the "big" over all county stats for this local market and then breaks the numbers down a little further to show some broad segment trends. The big question for John and Sally homeowner is often geared towards, "can I sell MY house right now"? If John and Sally own a condo they may not be much better off this year than they were last year in market appreciation. The condo market is almost always late to recover.
Last year the sales figures were heaviest in the entry level market. Those $125-150k three bedroom ramblers were being snatched up and as such, supply tightened up and prices soared. This year that market segment was priced high enough that demand slowed down a little, but the middle market surged with larger four bedroom houses seeing significant increases in unit sales. Those bigger mid sized homes saw a massive 59% increase in sales but a more modest 13% increase in median price.
Last year I said that the bottom has to tighten up first before the middle can take off. Well, the bottom did tighten up and now the middle is taking off this year. That is driving the increase in median price. The smaller two bedroom houses have peaked with only a 1.3% increase in median price despite a large surge in unit sales of 46%. Even the bread and butter three bedroom market that was red hot last year, is showing preliminary indications that the buyers are nearing their limits. The 18% increase in median against a large surge of 29% in units sold is still quite robust, however. The sellers in the entry level often move up to that bigger house and as they sell their 2 and 3 bedroom homes they move into the middle market. The 59% increase in unit sales in that segment will likely produce more impressive median increases when we check the numbers in a few months.
Of course this discussion has to hinge on keeping other complex variables favorable, such as the general economy, jobs and the ever critical mortgage rates.
The big takeaway for homeowners is the fact that their home that may have been upside down or too tight to sell, could in fact be a seller today. Contact your favorite Realtor® for a Comparative Market Analysis on your home. Most offer this service for no charge, I certainly will.
Monday, July 8, 2013
Prices moving up, inventory tight.
Rod Sager
Our local market is reflecting upward trending prices and tight inventory. For buyers this means it is time to jump off the fence and into the market before your home buying dollars are squeezed too tight. For sellers, the time to list could be right now. There is no way to determine how long this upward pricing will continue. We could see extended growth over several years or we could see a top out and flat line next year. There are too many external factors that effect the real estate market to make an absolute assertion. What we do know is that right now we have low prices that are quickly rising and we have very low interest rates. This is a golden moment in real estate where a buyer can lock in a low interest rate for 30 years and take advantage of robust market appreciation. Below are some excerpts from a recent article posted by the National Association of Realtors®.
"WASHINGTON (June 20, 2013) – Existing-home sales improved in May and remain solidly above a year ago, while the median price continued to rise by double-digit rates from a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors®."
"Total existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 4.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.18 million in May from 4.97 million in April, and is 12.9 percent above the 4.59 million-unit pace in May 2012."
"Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the recovery is strengthening and to expect limited housing supplies for the balance of the year in much of the country. “The housing numbers are overwhelmingly positive. However, the number of available homes is unlikely to grow, despite a nice gain in May, unless new home construction ramps up quickly by an additional 50 percent,” he said. “The home price growth is too fast, and only additional supply from new homebuilding can moderate future price growth.”"
"Existing-home sales are at the highest level since November 2009 when the market jumped to 5.44 million as buyers took advantage of tax stimulus. Sales have stayed above year-ago levels for 23 months, while the national median price shows 15 consecutive months of year-over-year increases".
"NAR President Gary Thomas, broker-owner of Evergreen Realty in Villa Park, Calif., said market conditions today are vastly different than during the housing boom. “The boom period was marked by easy credit and overbuilding, but today we have tight mortgage credit and widespread shortages of homes for sale,” he said.“The issue now is pent-up demand and strong growth in the number of households, with buyer traffic 29 percent above a year ago, coinciding with several years of inadequate housing construction. These conditions are contributing to sustainable price growth,” Thomas said."
"Forty-five percent of all homes sold in May were on the market for less than a month. The median time on the market is the shortest since monthly tracking began in May 2011; on an annual basis, a separate NAR survey of home buyers and sellers shows the shortest selling time was 4 weeks in both 2004 and 2005."
"Single-family home sales rose 5.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.60 million in May from 4.38 million in April, and are 12.7 percent higher than the 4.08 million-unit pace in May 2012. The median existing single-family home price was $208,700 in May, up 15.8 percent above a year ago, the strongest increase since October 2005 when it jumped 16.9 percent from a year earlier."
"Existing-home sales in the West increased 2.5 percent to a pace of 1.23 million in May and are 7.0 percent above a year ago. With the tightest regional supply, the median price in the West was $276,400, up 19.9 percent from May 2012."
Our local market is reflecting upward trending prices and tight inventory. For buyers this means it is time to jump off the fence and into the market before your home buying dollars are squeezed too tight. For sellers, the time to list could be right now. There is no way to determine how long this upward pricing will continue. We could see extended growth over several years or we could see a top out and flat line next year. There are too many external factors that effect the real estate market to make an absolute assertion. What we do know is that right now we have low prices that are quickly rising and we have very low interest rates. This is a golden moment in real estate where a buyer can lock in a low interest rate for 30 years and take advantage of robust market appreciation. Below are some excerpts from a recent article posted by the National Association of Realtors®.
"WASHINGTON (June 20, 2013) – Existing-home sales improved in May and remain solidly above a year ago, while the median price continued to rise by double-digit rates from a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors®."
"Total existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 4.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.18 million in May from 4.97 million in April, and is 12.9 percent above the 4.59 million-unit pace in May 2012."
"Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the recovery is strengthening and to expect limited housing supplies for the balance of the year in much of the country. “The housing numbers are overwhelmingly positive. However, the number of available homes is unlikely to grow, despite a nice gain in May, unless new home construction ramps up quickly by an additional 50 percent,” he said. “The home price growth is too fast, and only additional supply from new homebuilding can moderate future price growth.”"
"Existing-home sales are at the highest level since November 2009 when the market jumped to 5.44 million as buyers took advantage of tax stimulus. Sales have stayed above year-ago levels for 23 months, while the national median price shows 15 consecutive months of year-over-year increases".
"NAR President Gary Thomas, broker-owner of Evergreen Realty in Villa Park, Calif., said market conditions today are vastly different than during the housing boom. “The boom period was marked by easy credit and overbuilding, but today we have tight mortgage credit and widespread shortages of homes for sale,” he said.“The issue now is pent-up demand and strong growth in the number of households, with buyer traffic 29 percent above a year ago, coinciding with several years of inadequate housing construction. These conditions are contributing to sustainable price growth,” Thomas said."
"Forty-five percent of all homes sold in May were on the market for less than a month. The median time on the market is the shortest since monthly tracking began in May 2011; on an annual basis, a separate NAR survey of home buyers and sellers shows the shortest selling time was 4 weeks in both 2004 and 2005."
"Single-family home sales rose 5.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.60 million in May from 4.38 million in April, and are 12.7 percent higher than the 4.08 million-unit pace in May 2012. The median existing single-family home price was $208,700 in May, up 15.8 percent above a year ago, the strongest increase since October 2005 when it jumped 16.9 percent from a year earlier."
"Existing-home sales in the West increased 2.5 percent to a pace of 1.23 million in May and are 7.0 percent above a year ago. With the tightest regional supply, the median price in the West was $276,400, up 19.9 percent from May 2012."
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