Economic Indicators are Trending Up; "Op Window" is Closing

by Rod Sager, originally published on Realtor Rod Blog

Many market analysts are mildly bullish on the numbers coming out of the marketplace as we enter the final quarter of 2014. For me personally as a Realtor®, this was my strongest year ever. I enjoyed sales that were even better than the pre-crash heyday of the mid-2000s. Low interest rates and improving consumer confidence has made conditions for real estate ripe over the last two years. In 2011 through the middle of 2013 the first time home buyer segment was roaring. Prices were still a little depressed and rates were low so people that had been long priced out of the market saw a rare opportunity to own real estate. Economic recovery and confidence has led to a spill over into the middle and upper end markets.

Looking forward; the strong potential for the economy to swing into a more robust growth could lead to rising interest rates. If the rates get too high, they can have a negative effect on real estate sales and appreciation can slow. The "op window" for many buyers may be closing. Prices have swollen over the last two years by nearly 20%. If rates were to get closer to the 30 year average and settle in at 6%-6.5%, many entry level buyers will find themselves priced out. A strong economy is a good thing and even higher interest rates are worth having when strong job growth and higher incomes are part of the equation. Right now, buyers are in the open window of opportunity. They can lock in a low interest rate that can save them tens of thousands of dollars over the life of the loan before the improving economy drives prices and rates up.

Fear and uncertainty are what keep people from buying real estate. But no matter what, people need a place to live and buying right now for many people is just as affordable as renting. As the economic conditions improve the cost to own will rise faster than the cost of rent and that window will close as well. It is a good time to buy and a good time to sell.

This was published by Kiplinger this month:

By David Payne

The economy looks better than was previously thought: Look for about 3.5% growth at an annual rate in the third quarter, driven by motor vehicle sales,business equipment, exports and nonresidential construction. A likely upward revision of second-quarter growth to near 5.0% after a dismal first quarter (a -2.1% growth rate) is also likely. In the fourth quarter and into 2015, growth should settle down to a 3.0% rate. That would mean average GDP this year would be about 2.2% over the average for 2013.

Setting the stage for more sustained growth in coming months: After wringing out inflation, disposable income grew at a strong 4.0% annualized rate from December 2013 through July 2014. Consumer confidence is at its highest level since before the recession. Motor vehicle sales in July hit their highest level in over eight years. An index of manufacturing activity points to strongly expanding output. New orders for business equipment have climbed 13 percent at an annual rate since May, indicating strength in business investment spending. Plus, hiring is on the rise, layoffs are scarce (indicated by a very low rate of initial unemployment claims since May), and retail sales have rebounded.

And growth may accelerate more dramatically through 2015. Improving business confidence could push investment growth back up. Consumer spending and confidence remain below what would be considered normal levels by the standards of past economic expansions. As job growth returns and consumers feel more secure, more robust income and spending increases may well be triggered, pushing second-half growth over the expected 3% pace. While that happening in what remains of this year is an outside chance, it’s a good bet that in 2015 such a virtuous cycle will kick in.

There is a slight possibility that rising interest rates next year could have a mild depressive effect, knocking growth down from an above-average (better than a 3%) rate to a simply average (2.5%) pace. For now, however, we expect that the likely small increase of a quarter- or half-percentage point in rates won’t have much impact on GDP growth.

The Sales Data Looks Healthy

by Rod Sager (Posted today on his Blog as well)

I just spent the better part of this morning analyzing recent data from our local Multiple Listing Service and decided to run my 13 month analysis. One thing we often get in real estate is snippets of data year over year. This can be a good quick check to see which way the market has moved over a year, but lacks the insight provided by a monthly look at the trend over that whole period.

Many people like to see great leaps in price or sales but that can be unhealthy. Of course it is not as unhealthy as a depreciating market or precipitous drop in sales. But a rapid rise can lead to a premature peak and result in an uncomfortable drop in the market. Think about the four years of 2004 to 2007.

Data acquired from Regional Multiple Listing Service for Clark County, WA 
9-2012 through 9-2013 single family homes, excluding condos

Generally a modest and smooth appreciation in home values along with solid relatively flat seasonally adjusted sales is very healthy. Guess what? That is exactly what we have right now. The 50 year average appreciation for homes runs right around six and a half percent per year with a little more in up markets to offset the down markets. So an 8-10% annual appreciation over a decade is pretty healthy.

The median price for Clark County, WA is up from 197k in September 2012 to 237k as of September 2013. That represents a non-seasonally adjusted jump of around 20% but the curve will flatten again as we approach the winter. That sharp increase is a much driven by a movement from entry level buyers to mid level buyers as it is about actual appreciation. What I mean is that the inventory for the 125k-150k move in ready home dried up. Most of those entry level buyers are still making the same income they made a few years ago and they are priced out of the market. However those who sold their entry level homes a year ago made the move up in the last year driving the move up market. That moved the median price up disproportionately to actual appreciation.

I believe we will see a 30 month growth in median price starting from June of last year and ending on January 2015 at close to 30% which will average to around 10% annually. This is would be healthy. The current flat economy will keep things well regulated and without some improvement could lead to a fade in this valuation bump we had recently. The first spurt of growth is also often bigger as fence sitters jump into the market. If the market growth slows to a more modest 8-10% that is not a bad sign. On the contrary, it could lead to a steady long term rise in prices that is sustainable over a decade or more.

All that said, the real estate market is affected by many variables in the economy. Interest rates are a strong driver of real estate sales and they have been in the basement for several years. They could be on the rise as the federal government backs off their support of mortgage securities.  Even if rates continue their upward march toward normalcy, the market can still enjoy some growth. The fed will most likely continue their support of rate suppression until the economy is on solid footing. A growing and healthy economy will produce more qualified home buyers. We will lose some entry level buyers to higher rates but gain some in economic upward mobility as things shape up on the job front.

Inventory remains tight but there could be a pent up supply waiting to come on the market. Many people have been sitting on those homes they bought in the boom of '04-'08. They bought at or near the top of the market and have been unable to sell since the crash because they owe more than the market will pay. That is beginning to change as the prices move upward. Many of those people will soon be in a position to sell and many may exercise that option to take advantage of these still relatively low interest rates. Furthermore it has been reported that many banks are strategically holding on to REO inventory which adds to that potential inventory increase over the next few years. An increase in inventory will flatten out the sharp appreciation, but the availability of willing buyers should keep things modestly improving. Overall the real estate market is in position to enjoy a sustained gentle growth pattern that is healthy and beneficial to a recovering economy.

Buying Cosmetic Fixers

by Rod Sager

Locally our real estate market has transitioned into a seller's market save for the higher price ranges. Coping with increasing prices is often a challenge for buyers as they watch the value of their dollar erode. One thing they need to realize is that the turn key, move in ready homes spike first and cosmetic fixers can remain a value in a moderately appreciating market like we have right now. Please refer to this blog post for some valuable information on cosmetic fixers.

Don't Overlook a Home's Potential

Young People Want to Buy

I thought this was an interesting article from the NAR:

WASHINGTON (July 9, 2013) – Millennials are more confident than any other age group that their recent home purchase was a good financial investment, according to a new study released today. The inaugural 2013 National Association of Realtors® Home Buyer and Seller Generational Trends evaluated the generational differences of recent home buyers and sellers and found that while eight out of 10 recent buyers considered their home purchase a good financial investment, the number was even higher, 85 percent, for younger buyers under the age of 32.

“Homeownership is an investment in your future, and is how many younger American families begin to accumulate wealth,” said Paul Bishop, NAR vice president of research. “The oldest of the Millennial generation are now entering the years in which people typically buy a first home, and despite the recent downturn, homeownership still matters to them. The sheer size of the Millennial generation, the largest in history after baby boomers, is expected to give a powerful boost to long-run housing demand, though in the short-term mortgage accessibility and student debt repayment remain challenges.”

The study found that the largest group of recent buyers was Generation X Americans, those born between 1965 and 1979, who comprised 31 percent of recent purchases, followed closely by Millennials, sometimes called Generation Y, those born between 1980 and 2000, at 28 percent. Percentages of recent home purchases among prior generations was significantly lower, 18 percent were Younger Boomers, those born between 1955 and 1964; 14 percent were Older Boomers, Americans born between 1946 and 1954; and 10 percent were from the Silent Generation, those born between 1925 and 1945.

The median age of Millennial home buyers was 28, their median income was $66,200 and they typically bought a 1,700-square foot home costing $165,000. The typical Gen X buyer was 39 years old, had a median income of $93,100, and purchased a 2,100-square foot home costing $235,000.

The previous living arrangement of recent buyers varied greatly across the generations; among Millennials, 65 percent rented an apartment or house and 22 percent lived with their parents, relatives or friends; more than half of all Baby Boomer and Silent Generation buyers owned their previous residence.

The study found that older generations of home buyers prefer more recently built homes. Millennials typically bought homes built around 1986, nearly a decade older than the homes typically bought by the Silent Generation.

Younger buyers had a tendency to stay closer to their previous residence, often staying within 10 miles, whereas older buyers moved longer distances, typically more than 20 miles from their previous home.

Younger buyers were more likely to buy in an urban or central city area than older buyers; 21 percent of Millennials bought a home in an urban location compared to only 13 percent of Older Boomer and Silent Generation buyers.

The reason for buying a home also varies across the generations; younger buyers most often cited the desire to own a home of their own whereas older buyers wanted to be closer to family and friends. When it comes to factors influencing neighborhood choice, younger generations cited convenience to jobs, affordability of homes, and quality of the school district. Older generations placed higher importance on convenience to family and friends and healthcare facilities.

When it comes to a home’s green features, younger buyers placed higher importance on commuting costs than older generations who placed higher importance on a home’s energy efficient features and living in an environmentally friendly community.

Millennials tended to make more compromises with their home purchase than any other generation. Millennials most often conceded on the price and size of the home, lot size, distance from job and style of home; whereas nearly half of Older Boomer and Silent Generation buyers made no compromises on their recent home purchase.

As the age of recent buyers increases so does the rate of owning more than one home; among Millennials, 8 percent own more than one home, which could include either a vacation home or investment property; compared to 21 percent of Gen X-ers, 28 percent of Younger Boomers, and 27 percent of Older Boomers, and 26 percent of the Silent Generation.

Home buyers of all ages often begin the home buying process by looking online for properties for sales; however, the frequency of use of the internet to search for homes decreases as age increases. Ninety percent of Millennials frequently used the internet to search for homes compared to less than half of Silent Generation buyers. Younger generations of buyers were also more likely to find the home they purchased through the internet; older buyers most often learned about the home they purchased from their real estate agent.

Buyers of all ages gain many benefits from working with a real estate professional. Among the age groups, younger buyers are more likely to want an agent’s help understanding the home buying process, presumably because many are buying a home for the first time. Younger buyers were most often referred to their agent by a friend, neighbor or relative whereas older buyers were increasingly likely to work with the same agent they previously used to buy or sell a home.

When it comes to choosing an agent, reputation was important to buyers of all ages; however, younger buyers more often cited an agent’s honesty and trustworthiness as the most important factor compared to older buyers who most often cited the agent’s knowledge of the neighborhood – perhaps because older buyers tend to move further distances and may have less familiarity with area.

The median down payment for Millennials was 5 percent, considerably less than older generations of buyers whose down payment ranged from 8 percent for Gen X buyers to 22 percent for Silent Generation buyers. Younger buyers who financed their home purchase most often relied on savings for their down payment whereas older buyers were more likely use proceeds from the sale of a primary residence.

“An interesting finding is that Older Boomers and Silent Generation buyers found the mortgage application and approval process more difficult than expected compared to younger buyers,” said Bishop. “This underscores the ongoing challenges that many credit worthy home buyers face with today’s tight credit standards.”

The largest group of recent home sellers was from Generation X, comprising 30 percent of recent sales, followed by Younger Boomers (21 percent), Older Boomers (21 percent) and the Silent Generation (19 percent). As the age of sellers increased, the share of married and unmarried couples declined and the percentage of single female home buyers increased, from 4 percent among Millennials to more than 17 percent among Boomer and Silent Generation sellers, perhaps due to death or divorce.

Like buyers, older sellers tend to move greater distances, and are more likely than younger generations to move out of the state or region. While younger buyers typically moved to larger, higher priced homes, the data shows a clear trend of downsizing to smaller, less expensive homes among the Older Boomer and Silent Generations.

Typically the older the seller the longer the tenure in the home, while Millennials had been in their previous home for a median of five years, Gen X-ers stayed 8 years, Younger Boomers owned their home for 11 years, Older Boomers stayed for 13 years, and the Silent Generation kept their previous home for 15 years.

The reasons for selling a home also varied among the generations. Younger buyers were more likely to move to accommodate job relocation or desired to upgrade to a larger home. In comparison, older buyers were often looking for a smaller home due to retirement and because upkeep was too difficult due to health or financial limitations, or to be closer to family or friends.

When it comes to negotiating, older sellers are often more willing to reduce their home’s asking price but are less likely to offer buyer incentives such as home warranty policies or assistance with closing costs.

Of sellers working with real estate agents, the study found that older generations of buyers are more likely to use full-service brokerages in which agents provide a broad range of services. While more than two-thirds of Millennials used full-service brokerages, they were more likely than other generations to choose limited service, which includes discount brokerage, or minimal service, such as simply listing the home on a multiple listing service, presumably because they have less equity in their home.

Sellers of all ages typically found a real estate agent through a referral or friend; however, younger sellers were more likely to use the same real estate broker or agent for their home purchase, 59 percent of Millennials used the same agent compared to 42 percent of Older Boomer sellers. Younger sellers typically want their selling agents help with selling the home within a specific timeframe and pricing the home competitively, whereas older buyers are looking for their agent’s help with marketing the home and finding a buyer.

For additional NAR commentary on the home buying habits of Millennials, watch this video.

NAR mailed an eight-page questionnaire in July 2012 to a national sample of 93,502 home buyers and sellers who purchased their homes between July 2011 and June 2012, according to county records and using the Tailored Survey Design Method. It generated 8,501 usable responses; the adjusted response rate was 9.1 percent. All information is characteristic of the 12-month period ending in June 2012 with the exception of income data, which are for 2011. Because of rounding and omissions for space, percentage distributions for some findings may not add up to 100 percent.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

Prices moving up, inventory tight.

Rod Sager

Our local market is reflecting upward trending prices and tight inventory. For buyers this means it is time to jump off the fence and into the market before your home buying dollars are squeezed too tight. For sellers, the time to list could be right now. There is no way to determine how long this upward pricing will continue. We could see extended growth over several years or we could see a top out and flat line next year. There are too many external factors that effect the real estate market to make an absolute assertion. What we do know is that right now we have low prices that are quickly rising and we have very low interest rates. This is a golden moment in real estate where a buyer can lock in a low interest rate for 30 years and take advantage of robust market appreciation. Below are some excerpts from a recent article posted by the National Association of Realtors®.

"WASHINGTON (June 20, 2013) – Existing-home sales improved in May and remain solidly above a year ago, while the median price continued to rise by double-digit rates from a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors®."

"Total existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 4.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.18 million in May from 4.97 million in April, and is 12.9 percent above the 4.59 million-unit pace in May 2012."

"Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the recovery is strengthening and to expect limited housing supplies for the balance of the year in much of the country. “The housing numbers are overwhelmingly positive. However, the number of available homes is unlikely to grow, despite a nice gain in May, unless new home construction ramps up quickly by an additional 50 percent,” he said. “The home price growth is too fast, and only additional supply from new homebuilding can moderate future price growth.”"

"Existing-home sales are at the highest level since November 2009 when the market jumped to 5.44 million as buyers took advantage of tax stimulus. Sales have stayed above year-ago levels for 23 months, while the national median price shows 15 consecutive months of year-over-year increases".

"NAR President Gary Thomas, broker-owner of Evergreen Realty in Villa Park, Calif., said market conditions today are vastly different than during the housing boom. “The boom period was marked by easy credit and overbuilding, but today we have tight mortgage credit and widespread shortages of homes for sale,” he said.“The issue now is pent-up demand and strong growth in the number of households, with buyer traffic 29 percent above a year ago, coinciding with several years of inadequate housing construction. These conditions are contributing to sustainable price growth,” Thomas said."

"Forty-five percent of all homes sold in May were on the market for less than a month. The median time on the market is the shortest since monthly tracking began in May 2011; on an annual basis, a separate NAR survey of home buyers and sellers shows the shortest selling time was 4 weeks in both 2004 and 2005."

"Single-family home sales rose 5.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.60 million in May from 4.38 million in April, and are 12.7 percent higher than the 4.08 million-unit pace in May 2012. The median existing single-family home price was $208,700 in May, up 15.8 percent above a year ago, the strongest increase since October 2005 when it jumped 16.9 percent from a year earlier."

"Existing-home sales in the West increased 2.5 percent to a pace of 1.23 million in May and are 7.0 percent above a year ago. With the tightest regional supply, the median price in the West was $276,400, up 19.9 percent from May 2012."