The Sales Data Looks Healthy

by Rod Sager (Posted today on his Blog as well)

I just spent the better part of this morning analyzing recent data from our local Multiple Listing Service and decided to run my 13 month analysis. One thing we often get in real estate is snippets of data year over year. This can be a good quick check to see which way the market has moved over a year, but lacks the insight provided by a monthly look at the trend over that whole period.

Many people like to see great leaps in price or sales but that can be unhealthy. Of course it is not as unhealthy as a depreciating market or precipitous drop in sales. But a rapid rise can lead to a premature peak and result in an uncomfortable drop in the market. Think about the four years of 2004 to 2007.

Data acquired from Regional Multiple Listing Service for Clark County, WA 
9-2012 through 9-2013 single family homes, excluding condos

Generally a modest and smooth appreciation in home values along with solid relatively flat seasonally adjusted sales is very healthy. Guess what? That is exactly what we have right now. The 50 year average appreciation for homes runs right around six and a half percent per year with a little more in up markets to offset the down markets. So an 8-10% annual appreciation over a decade is pretty healthy.

The median price for Clark County, WA is up from 197k in September 2012 to 237k as of September 2013. That represents a non-seasonally adjusted jump of around 20% but the curve will flatten again as we approach the winter. That sharp increase is a much driven by a movement from entry level buyers to mid level buyers as it is about actual appreciation. What I mean is that the inventory for the 125k-150k move in ready home dried up. Most of those entry level buyers are still making the same income they made a few years ago and they are priced out of the market. However those who sold their entry level homes a year ago made the move up in the last year driving the move up market. That moved the median price up disproportionately to actual appreciation.

I believe we will see a 30 month growth in median price starting from June of last year and ending on January 2015 at close to 30% which will average to around 10% annually. This is would be healthy. The current flat economy will keep things well regulated and without some improvement could lead to a fade in this valuation bump we had recently. The first spurt of growth is also often bigger as fence sitters jump into the market. If the market growth slows to a more modest 8-10% that is not a bad sign. On the contrary, it could lead to a steady long term rise in prices that is sustainable over a decade or more.

All that said, the real estate market is affected by many variables in the economy. Interest rates are a strong driver of real estate sales and they have been in the basement for several years. They could be on the rise as the federal government backs off their support of mortgage securities.  Even if rates continue their upward march toward normalcy, the market can still enjoy some growth. The fed will most likely continue their support of rate suppression until the economy is on solid footing. A growing and healthy economy will produce more qualified home buyers. We will lose some entry level buyers to higher rates but gain some in economic upward mobility as things shape up on the job front.

Inventory remains tight but there could be a pent up supply waiting to come on the market. Many people have been sitting on those homes they bought in the boom of '04-'08. They bought at or near the top of the market and have been unable to sell since the crash because they owe more than the market will pay. That is beginning to change as the prices move upward. Many of those people will soon be in a position to sell and many may exercise that option to take advantage of these still relatively low interest rates. Furthermore it has been reported that many banks are strategically holding on to REO inventory which adds to that potential inventory increase over the next few years. An increase in inventory will flatten out the sharp appreciation, but the availability of willing buyers should keep things modestly improving. Overall the real estate market is in position to enjoy a sustained gentle growth pattern that is healthy and beneficial to a recovering economy.

Buying Cosmetic Fixers

by Rod Sager

Locally our real estate market has transitioned into a seller's market save for the higher price ranges. Coping with increasing prices is often a challenge for buyers as they watch the value of their dollar erode. One thing they need to realize is that the turn key, move in ready homes spike first and cosmetic fixers can remain a value in a moderately appreciating market like we have right now. Please refer to this blog post for some valuable information on cosmetic fixers.

Don't Overlook a Home's Potential

Tips for Home Selling in the Fall

by Rod Sager

This late autumn listing in 2012, sold in 6 days.

Up here in the Pacific Northwest we have an abrupt transition from warm summer to chilly autumn. The rain starts falling and the leaves turn bright colors. It is a sight to behold. It also creates some problems for real estate. We get really dark as the fall marches on towards the holidays. Statistics show Autumn is the second busiest season for real estate. This is still a great time to sell and making a home warm and inviting will set it apart from the rest.  

It is important to keep a listed home bright and cheery as the days grow darker. Keeping the leaves raked and clear of the walkway adds positive curb appeal and also keeps safety in the forefront as wet leaves are quite slippery. Be sure to mow the lawn every week until the end of October at least. As the daily temps plunge the need to mow will go away. The leaves however will linger on through thanksgiving so keep on top of that. Light and bright sells in the Northwest.  

I typically offer up tips on prepping a listing for Autumn but I came across a well done article on the Internet with ten tips for selling in the fall and thought I would share them with all of you. Some may not fit our Northwest situation 100% as the author is based in California, but these are still pretty good.

Ten tips from Elizabeth Weintraub 

Clean Up the Yard

Rake dead leaves and debris in your lawn. Don't let overgrown vegetation block the windows or path to the entrance. Cutting bushes and tree limbs will let the sun inside and showcase the exterior of your home. Cut away summer vines and cut down dead flowers.

Create Autumn Curb Appeal

The most popular autumn flowers are chrysanthemums (or mums) and they bloom for a long time. I am also partial to marigolds for fall. Both mums and marigolds are available in yellow, which is a home selling color. Plant them in pots. Place pots on the steps and along the sidewalk. Accent with pumpkins.

Dress the Windows

Rain and wind from over the summer months can make your windows dusty and streaked by autumn. You might not notice smudges, but buyers will, if only on a subconscious level. To sell a home, your windows need to sparkle. Even though I am not selling my home, my cats routinely rub their little noses on the inside glass while walking along window ledges, so I need to wash my windows inside and out every autumn. Remove screens and spray them down.

Check the HVAC

You want the air inside your home to smell fresh. When was the last time you changed your furnace filter? You can buy 90-day furnace filters. Have the HVAC system checked before you need to turn on the heat. Besides, the buyer will ask a home inspector to look at your HVAC. If you discover problems with your furnace, it's better to fix them before your home goes on the market.

Clean Out the Fireplace

Ah, nothing smells like autumn than smoke from a wood-burning fireplace. However, in some parts of the country, burning wood indoors or outdoors is outlawed. In Sacramento, we have certain days when we are not allowed to burn wood in the fireplace. If you have a gas fireplace, light it when buyers come through. If the fireplace is filled with cobwebs because it hasn't been used for months, vacuum it out and wash it down. Some home stagers arrange knickknacks in the fireplace in place of wood logs.

Prepare Autumn Dishes

Speaking of autumn scents, you might set out freshly baked pumpkin cupcakes or simmer hot apple cider on the stove. Put a tray of cinnamon sticks on the counter, dotted with whole cloves. One of my favorite autumn treats as a kid was snickerdoodle cookies. Prop open a cookbook to an autumn stew. Fill a bowl with crisp red apples.

Set the Autumn Mood Musically
When I think of autumn music, beyond "See You in September" and "California Dreamin'," polka music and accordions come to mind. German beer fests are always held in October. But that doesn't seem appropriate for autumn home selling unless you're entertaining a frat house. I suspect a home seller is better off with Enya's "The First of Autumn" or George Winston's new age piano album "Autumn."

Utilize Autumn Accent Colors

You don't need to dump a lifeless sofa when you can accessorize its dullness with bright red, orange and / or golden yellow pillows. Toss a quilt or autumn-colored throw over a chair. After you've cleared away the clutter and depersonalized each room, bring a little bit of autumn hues to each room by placing bold-colored accent pieces in odd groupings such as 3's and 5's. Create an autumn centerpiece for the dining room table by arranging pine cones and nuts around orange candles, stick in a few leaves from the yard.Turn on the Lights

Above all, bring in the light. When days get shorter, the sun sets lower in the horizon and casts wider shadows. Pull up the blinds, open the shutters, push back the drapes on every window. Turn on every light in the house, including appliance lights and closet lights. Brighten darker rooms with few windows by placing spotlights on the floor behind furniture, and for goodness sakes, turn off the TV.

Offer Parting Treats

I like to leave a guest book by the door for people to leave comments about the home. Gathering buyer feedback can be crucial. And buyers will feel more compelled to leave you a note if you give them something in return. Like tiny packets of candy corn or those snack-sized candy bars -- oh, I love Snickers bars like no tomorrow. Or you can go all-out and leave a tray of individually wrapped caramelized apples, tied with a curling ribbon.

At the time of writing, Elizabeth Weintraub, DRE # 00697006, is a Broker-Associate at Lyon Real Estate in Sacramento, California.

Real Estate with Realtor Rod Sager: Got 300 Grand? If so, this market will treat you w...

I am out of town this weekend, so here is a recent post from my Real Estate Blog :)

Real Estate with Realtor Rod Sager: Got 300 Grand? If so, this market will treat you w...: This is a somewhat anecdotal post but I can back it up with some sound data so here I go. It seems that this market has gotten quite hot at ...

What's the Real Estate Market Doing in Vancouver, WA?

by Dan Jensen

The Real Estate market has shown much greater strength this year than in recent past years, for sure. There's an optimism in the market that we may be slowly moving toward stronger home prices, and a more vibrant home sales record for not only this year, but for the coming year or two as well.

There's certainly still nervousness across the US regarding the sustainability of the recovery of the economy, but that nervousness has been tempered to some degree by more and more home owners who have, for the past 5-7 years, been upside down in their equity position, this year, being able to offer their home for sale and not have to bring money to the closing table to get their home sold!  That's tangible improvement to say the least.

Inserted here is the most recent Movoto summary report of real estate activity here in Vancouver WA...

Vancouver Real Estate Trends & Statistics

Vancouver Median List Price

$250,000

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Vancouver Market Snapshot

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	Today	1 Month Ago		1 Year Ago
Total Inventory	1,312	1,240	6%	1,165	13%
Median List Price	$250,000	$258,000	3%	$244,900	2%
% Distressed	2%	1%		4%
Median Days On Movoto	59	55	7%	85	31%
Median House Size	2,000	2,021	1%	2,051	2%
Median $/Sqft	$132/sqft	$130/sqft	2%	$121/sqft	9%

Vancouver Market Data

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	2/13	3/13	4/13	5/13	6/13	7/13	8/13
Price Reductions	211	207	227	273	303	362	425
New Listings	474	497	651	647	672	634	606
Sold/Expired	571	618	622	687	604	637	580

By the way, if you have any questions about any of the this, or would like to know more specifically what your home is likely to bring fair market value, please give us a call (360-253-1212) anytime!  We're glad to help.

The Equity Northwest Properties Team

The Back to School Lull and Home Affordability

by Rod Sager

All the kiddies are on the bus and off to school. Much to their chagrin but leaving mom and dad with a happy grin. This is a hectic time in the lives of families as the summer transitions to fall. I am noticing here in the local market a bit of a lull in activity. I believe we will see a slow down as is typical for September, but should still beat last year's ninth month figures. As the month comes to a close it is likely to pick up a bit.

Autumn can be a great time to sell or buy a home. The air is crisp and clean, colors begin to shift to golden hues of red and orange. It is just a wonderful time of year. If you are listing a home it is wise to keep the leaves clear of the walkways. Wet leaves are hazardous and may keep some people from looking at the home thoroughly. Keep the rain gutters clear of debris as well. Overflowing gutters are easy to fix but leave a negative impression on buyers. Here is a link to a great article on selling your home in the fall. One thing you will find in the article is a tip on keeping the home as bright as possible. Here in the Washington we have the double whammy as the year labors on. First, we get allot of cloud cover which makes homes darker inside during the day. Second we are well above 45 degrees of latitude and that means a low hanging sun for an even darker dark day. The bottom line is bright sells!

Source, Regional Multiple Listing Service

For buyers the time may be right now. As the activity slows down just a touch, the manic multiple offer scenarios will be a little less frequent. Rates are stable, for now, but the end of this year marks the end of several key federal programs that could create a dilemma for entry level buyers. Of course prices have been edging up as well, so buyers that wait will likely pay more. The home affordability index peaked in early 2012 and now is beginning to tighten up. The chart shows the index based on an NAR model. The value is the percentage of the mortgage on a median priced home that the median family income can support. As of June this year it was 167%. That means a family earning the median income in this area can afford 167% of the mortgage of the median priced home. This is still very affordable and frankly means that even families well below the median income can qualify for home at or near the median. Home affordability is more important than price since price is relative. If a house is $50,000 that is a low price, but if a buyer only qualifies for $45,000 than it is relatively expensive and out of reach. Keeping the affordability index at 100% or more is healthy for the market. we have a healthy market right now, so buyers should jump in and sellers should get ready to move.

Real estate is a local business.

By Rod Sager

How often have you heard the expression, "real estate is about location, location, location"? If we are to take this idea at face value, then real estate is a local business. Local companies are much more in tune with the neighborhood trends, community developments, municipal and county regulatory and legislative agendas, and other important facts about the area. It stands to reason that working with a local real estate professional in a local company is a good idea.

This blog has been established to get good real estate information out to the public. We often post tips about home care, and local market trends. Today we will talk about the importance of local businesses and local professionals.

When choosing a real estate agent, buyers ought to think about the local aspect of real estate. Will this person understand the immediate market they are interested in? Is the company they represent a locally owned company or a national franchise? If the latter, then are they at least locally focused. Purchasing a home is most likely the single most expensive thing most people will ever buy. It seems obvious that care and attention to whom trust is placed to represent that transaction is paramount.

Local is critical because the difference between a "house" and a "home" is local. Building a home from a house is done with family, friends, neighborhoods, schools, churches, clubs and services. Local, local, local is as important as location, location, location because knowing the right location requires a local awareness.

If moving from Portland, OR buyers should consider carefully before using a dual licensed Portland agent for a Clark County home purchase. Although Portland is just across the river, it is a state away. Real estate in Oregon is conducted in a similar fashion but there are many different facets and nuanced subtleties that can be significant enough to bring about pause.

It's been more than a decade since Gene Thompson left one of America's largest national real estate firms to open his own brokerage here in Vancouver U.S.A. Equity Northwest Properties has always adhered to Gene's idea that real estate is a local business. One of the advantages to large national chains has always been resources. But national chains are typically run from a corporate office in some far away place. Local branches are often force fed a staple diet of the latest corporate headquarters buzz program. As we turned the century over to a new millennium many of those "resources" began to become widely accessible through the ever present internet technology. Now smaller, local companies have similar access. The resource edge offered by the big national brokerages has eroded significantly since 2000.

That has allowed companies like Equity Northwest Properties to thrive. Local Realtors® working local markets with a local corporate policy is pure bliss. This local minded business model has allowed Gene's company to evolve into one of the region's largest independent brokerages with offices in Vancouver, Camas and Kelso. Between the three offices are affiliations with the two largest multiple listing services in the Pacific Northwest, both the RMLS and NWMLS. That makes Equity a very local company with a regional reach. This is a powerful combination.

In conclusion buyers and sellers should strongly consider the local aspect of real estate when deciding upon whom they will hire to represent them. The best decisions are made with the best information and real estate information is local to the core.