Land Ho!

Originally posted on Real Estate with Realtor® Rod, May 22nd, 2015
by Rod Sager

In the local market we are still fortunate to have a large area in which homes can be built on five acre estate parcels. These need not be far away from town, and many in fact are very close in.

I recently showed a five acre parcel ready to build in Hockinson just five minutes out of East Vancouver. It was listed at $179,900. Buyers dreaming about that country estate should consider looking now. Land prices are inching up and rates for now remain low. Building costs however have been rising sharply. Building materials are experiencing price increases that are disproportionate to the economy at large. This could be due to the recent heavy demand added by a major influx of suburban and urban development in the local market.

Here in Clark County five acre building sites abound from areas in close like Camas, Hockinson, or Ridgefield all the way out to places like Yacolt and Amboy. The further out locations will often yield better pricing. The trade off becomes convenience versus value.

Some of the lots that are found for sale are located in subdivisions with a strict set of CCRs or even an HOA that may place restrictions on the size and type of buildings. Other lots are relatively unregulated in that regard. Our office currently has a generous supply of listings for buildable land. I am quite impressed with the variety.

Red area is seeing suburban development pressure,
yellow area remains mostly rural in nature
and is outside of the urban growth boundary

For those who wish to have a five acre estate in close to the city, the time is now. These types of parcels are reacting to the increased pressure from hungry buyers. Soon land pricing couple with building costs may push these completely out of the reach of the middle class.

The future of housing is in cramped quarters with neighborhoods stuffed with homes on tiny lots. The chances to own some space grow thin as increased regulations and the finite nature of land create a market that can only get tighter. In the graphic shown the area in the inside the yellow line is all within 20-25 minutes of PDX and has many opportunities to have a five acre country estate.

We are very fortunate in the metro Portland-Vancouver area to still be able to have a rural country home less than 30 minutes to the city core. Seattle lost that ability long ago. Those wishing to enjoy the country estate are well advised to make their move now.

Inventory is still tight, Buyers are still cautious

Inventory remains very tight in the bottom half of the market. In general these kinds of inventory restrictions create a mad fury of bidding as frustrated buyers fight to get an opportunity to own a home. This market however has a caveat in that the buyers remain cautious. They will bid up a nice move-in ready home in a great neighborhood but they are avoiding homes that are not pristine or that are located in less desirable neighborhoods.

Buyers will simply pass on a home that is overbuilt for the neighborhood or in need of a great deal of repair. Sellers need to be aware of this and cleaning up a new listing and making it look as good as possible could be the difference between a quick sale with multiple offers and a lingering slow sale scenario.

Builders have reemerged with a strong presence and have dozens of new home communities being built. In general these communities seem to be selling well. The market is strong but buyers remain selective and bordering on picky, so sellers need to step up their game to get top dollar for their listing.

This is going to be an interesting summer.

The Strongest Offer isn't Always the Highest Offer

This was posted last week on another blog, by Rod Sager

Sometimes a seller is faced with the desirable dilemma of having multiple offers on their home. Initially the tendency is to think the highest offer is the best. Generally that would be true, but not always. If the seller is trying to move to a new house they are purchasing they have to think about the big picture. If the sale fails, then that could cost them money on the house they are moving into or even cause that sale to fail. Sometimes the best offer is the one with the least obstructions. That all cash offer with a five day inspection period and two week close might work better for the seller than a USDA financed offer with a ten day inspection and a 60 day close that's $5,000 higher and right up against the buyer's maximum approval.

Usually the highest offer is the one the seller takes but there are times when a "cleaner" offer that is a little less money is the better route for the seller. In this seller's market, buyers should try to structure their offer to suit the seller's needs. The buyer's agent is well advised to talk to the seller's agent a try to figure out what the seller is looking for in an offer. Not so much the dollar amount but the terms. Sometimes sellers have a natural inclination to refuse to pay closing costs for a buyer. Even though an offer can be structured to net the seller the same amount he wants, some sellers have illogical or emotional reasons for not taking a particular offer that is otherwise very strong. In a multiple offer scenario the buyer may not get a second chance to present the best offer possible or to modify terms to suit the seller's idiosyncrasies.

In this fast selling market buyers need to be thoughtful about their approach to an offer.

Why Listing a Home in March Works

by Rod Sager; originally posted February, 2014, Real Estate News

In most real estate markets there is a sales curve that peaks in the summer months and bottoms out in the dead dark of winter. I believe that this cycle is as mental as it is anything else. People tend to be less active in the winter, especially in northern latitudes with cold and miserable weather. It is no surprise that e-commerce performs well in the winter and bricks and mortar retail does not with the notable exception of December holidays.

Information data and chart sourced from RMLS

Our real estate market locally has a modest sales spike in the summer months of roughly 10% above the annual monthly average and about 10% under in the middle of winter. That represents a total swing of roughly 20%. In some markets where winter weather is truly brutal, I would imagine the spread is significantly greater and in sunny SoCal it is probably a flatter curve. The chart above shows this annual trend with a notable exception in 2010 where the fall off came early. The 2013 curve was a more dramatic seasonal curve than the statistical average I compiled since 2001.  The 2011 curve is very typical when compared to most of the years since 2001. The 2013 curve is more like one I would expect to see in severe winter climates like the upper Midwest.

I think the best way to wrap your arms around this is to break the home buyers into two very broad classes. Those highly motivated to buy with external pressure and those buying because they can. So the first group is motivated by things such as a job transfer, loss of job, a new baby on the way, divorce, etc. This is external pressure and that makes someone willing to trudge through a foot of snow in the cold misery of January to look at houses or deal with the inconvenience of listing at a time they would rather stay indoors and visit with family.

The latter category is someone with a new job with higher income and maybe they think, "Hey, we can finally afford that dream house on five acres". Or perhaps they are empty-nesters looking to downsize. These buyers and sellers are much more likely to list or start the buying process when it is convenient. They are less likely to brave the wild elements of January looking at houses.

Anther reason there is a spike in sales in the summer is that families with school age children prefer to move over summer vacation when the kids are out school. This is especially true if the children will be changing schools after the move.

In a real estate market like this one; the biggest driver has been lack of inventory in that under median price range. When inventory increases that will relieve some of the pressure and could stabilize prices. If a seller has a home that is a little less than ideal; this is the time to list. This market is driven right now by move in ready, clean condition, updated properties. If a listing is a little outside those ideal parameters, the best way to sell it is in a market with less competition. As more listings come on the market toward May, the house can lose value and or position against superior properties that become available. March is a great way to tap into the "spring fever" of home buying a little ahead of the market. This is the time to get that slightly out of favor listing in front of buyers before a wave of potentially more desirable properties arrive on the scene.

If a seller has that perfect updated, move in ready median priced listing, then sometimes waiting till April can be a smart move so as to tap the increase in buyers actively looking that occurs in mid to late spring. Of course one way to get it both ways is to list in March at a slightly high price, gauge activity, get feedback and either sell at a high price or build a strategy based on the feedback and activity in March and April to position the listing ideally for May and June.

March Madness is amazing for college basketball and can be equally so for real estate.

The Gap Between the Bottom and Middle is Tight, For Now

By Rod Sager, originally posted on Rod's Real Estate News.

Have you felt trapped in your house over the last few years? Biding your time waiting for the real estate market to correct so you can sell? 2015 may be the year for you. Over the last two years here in Clark County we have seen a roughly 20% increase in the median sale price. Many people that were not able to sell now may find themselves in a positive situation. We very well could be at a turning point of opportunity. For people that are making a move up in price, selling their less expensive house now for a slightly lower amount than they might get next year could prove advantageous. The more expensive house they want will also likely be more expensive. So selling a small house for less to get a big house for less sometimes makes sense.

I saw prices on entry level houses flatten a bit in the second half of 2014. I believe that the market for the 40 year old 3 bed 2 bath home is just about as high as the economy will support right now. Barring any dramatic improvement in the overall economic condition 2015 is a great time to sell an entry level home. Where the market continues to see improving prices is that middle move up. Last summer I ran into situations where a simple 1400 foot ranch home would sell for $220k and a gorgeous 2100 foot home in the same area was fetching just 10% more. I believe that the gap in those market segments should widen this year as the entry level could be flat and the middle will continue to swell in values. Selling the little house to get a big one is prime for 2015. Some people may even find that their house payment is only marginally higher since rates are quite low right now.

Generally a real estate market rebound will begin at the bottom. The bottom of the market can drive the middle. If the bottom is soft so will the middle be. When the bottom begins to move up in value the middle is going to trail behind for at least six months. So that leaves a window to move from the bottom to the middle with the move up house feeling like a bargain. Once the bottom hits the high plateau then there is only a six month window of opportunity to capitalize on the middle lagging behind on growth. This is the gap between the market segments. As an example, entry level homes that were fetching $160,000 two years ago are now selling for $200,000. But the middle houses that were getting $220,000 two years ago are running about $260,000 now. The 25% gain at the bottom and a 16% at the middle translates into a relative deal for the move up buyer. This year there is a good chance the $200,000 house will only rise a little maybe to $210,000 but that middle market is showing signs of activity suggesting the 260,000 house will get to $285,000 this year. So holding out for an extra ten to buy a house that will cost an extra 25 may not be the best approach.

Keep an eye on the real estate trends. Have your favorite Realtor® send you listings so you can keep your finger on the pulse of the market. I can only see trends, I am no Nostradamus, so anything can happen. Real estate is however a very trend based market and it typically follows modestly predictable patterns.

The Holidays are a Serious Time for Real Estate

By Rod Sager, originally published on 12/5/2014

image from www.azcentral.com

I have said it before and I'll say it again; the holidays are a serious time for real estate. Anybody that is buying or selling during this time of year is very serious about real estate.

Buyers that are out in the weather during a time they could be at office parties, visiting with family, shopping for the elusive perfect gift, etc. is very committed to finding a house in a timely fashion. Otherwise why wouldn't they just put it off until the New Year?

Likewise for sellers. They would probably rather not have people tromping through their home during the holidays, when guests are over, the decorations are up, etc. Yet there they are doing just that. Maybe they just really want to sell their house?

This is a great time to buy or sell. All of the classic "looky-loos" are on hiatus while the serious contenders are still in the game. I will likely close four transactions this month and that is as many as I closed in the summer months. Don't take the holidays off, you might just get everything you want in the month of December!

As always, seller's should be mindful of the basics of presented their home to prospective buyers. This might be the year to keep half of your holiday decorations in the attic. Too much clutter can be a negative. Keep baking all those yummy holiday goodies because buyers love the smell of fresh baked cookies. Keep the walkways clear of tripping or slipping  hazards. Keep snow off the driveway and walkway.

Buyers are well advised to keep shopping during the holidays. Sellers are usually easier to negotiate with when they are busy with other aspects of their lives. At the point they have chosen to keep their home open during this month, they are motivated, whether they say so or not.

December is a win-win month for buyers and sellers so neither should shy away from the golden opportunity that December brings to real estate.

Real Estate is Like an Evergreen Tree

Was that a tree analogy in the headline? Yep, this is Washington after all. Real estate is more evergreen then deciduous. It does not drop its leaves and go dormant for the winter like many of the beautiful deciduous trees in the area. Rather, real estate is like an evergreen, it remains green and lush all year long. People continue to buy and sell homes year round. The volume of activity slows down but the sales remain just a little below the summer peak. There is roughly a 25% seasonal curve here in Southwest Washington and the Metro Portland, OR area.

I have found that the people who are out looking in the cooler months are "the real deal". These folks could be inside sipping on a latte by the fire, yet they are out in the cold rain, snow, and sleet to look at houses. They are serious buyers. Sellers looking to get a leg up on the spring market would do well to keep their home listed through the winter.

Should you decide to list in the winter, be certain keep your walkways free of leaves, debris and snow. When showing the home a warm fire in the fireplace if you have one adds to the charm. No fireplace? Light a candle with a vanilla or smokey aroma.  

Winter can be a good time to sell your home and is can be equally favorable for buyers. Don't let the clouds and cool air discourage you. Real estate is like an evergreen tree, it doesn't hibernate in the winter.