Monday, July 22, 2013

Rent or Own?

Census information shows some interesting differences in housing that is available for renters vs. that which is available for sale. Overall the most interesting statistic is the median age of an owner at 54 versus the median for a renter at 39. I believe the age gap to be attributed primarily between two key factors. Younger people earn less money on average and tend to be more mobile. Mobility lends itself to rent rather than own. But if money is driving a younger person away from home ownership, this market is an ideal opportunity to own sooner rather than later. With home prices on the rise but still low and rates remaining at the historical bottom of the range, money is not the issue.

I have found that my buyers over the last two years have in fact been on average younger than ever. I would imagine that the next iteration of this bi-annual government report will show a closer gap between owners and renters as young people seem to jumping at the opportunity to buy that this market has provided.

From the Oregonian, Portland, OR:





"Rent or buy? A recent housing survey shows that the stock of Portland-area rental homes offers a very different sent of amenities and conditions than metro owner-occupied homes.

Many of the differences are likely explained by demographics. Homeowners have a median household income of $70,000, while renters' median household income is $34,164. Renters also skew younger: the median age for the head householder among renters is 39, compared with 54 for homeowners.

The American Housing Survey, conducted by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development every two years, features metro-area numbers are released on a rotating basis. Portland's haven't been since 2002.

The Census Bureau surveyed 3,885 Portland-area householders, or about one in every 240 housing units. These numbers reflect data collected in 2011.

-- Elliot Njus"

Monday, July 15, 2013

Young People Want to Buy

I thought this was an interesting article from the NAR:

WASHINGTON (July 9, 2013) – Millennials are more confident than any other age group that their recent home purchase was a good financial investment, according to a new study released today. The inaugural 2013 National Association of Realtors® Home Buyer and Seller Generational Trends evaluated the generational differences of recent home buyers and sellers and found that while eight out of 10 recent buyers considered their home purchase a good financial investment, the number was even higher, 85 percent, for younger buyers under the age of 32.

“Homeownership is an investment in your future, and is how many younger American families begin to accumulate wealth,” said Paul Bishop, NAR vice president of research. “The oldest of the Millennial generation are now entering the years in which people typically buy a first home, and despite the recent downturn, homeownership still matters to them. The sheer size of the Millennial generation, the largest in history after baby boomers, is expected to give a powerful boost to long-run housing demand, though in the short-term mortgage accessibility and student debt repayment remain challenges.”

The study found that the largest group of recent buyers was Generation X Americans, those born between 1965 and 1979, who comprised 31 percent of recent purchases, followed closely by Millennials, sometimes called Generation Y, those born between 1980 and 2000, at 28 percent. Percentages of recent home purchases among prior generations was significantly lower, 18 percent were Younger Boomers, those born between 1955 and 1964; 14 percent were Older Boomers, Americans born between 1946 and 1954; and 10 percent were from the Silent Generation, those born between 1925 and 1945.

The median age of Millennial home buyers was 28, their median income was $66,200 and they typically bought a 1,700-square foot home costing $165,000. The typical Gen X buyer was 39 years old, had a median income of $93,100, and purchased a 2,100-square foot home costing $235,000.

The previous living arrangement of recent buyers varied greatly across the generations; among Millennials, 65 percent rented an apartment or house and 22 percent lived with their parents, relatives or friends; more than half of all Baby Boomer and Silent Generation buyers owned their previous residence.

The study found that older generations of home buyers prefer more recently built homes. Millennials typically bought homes built around 1986, nearly a decade older than the homes typically bought by the Silent Generation.

Younger buyers had a tendency to stay closer to their previous residence, often staying within 10 miles, whereas older buyers moved longer distances, typically more than 20 miles from their previous home.

Younger buyers were more likely to buy in an urban or central city area than older buyers; 21 percent of Millennials bought a home in an urban location compared to only 13 percent of Older Boomer and Silent Generation buyers.

The reason for buying a home also varies across the generations; younger buyers most often cited the desire to own a home of their own whereas older buyers wanted to be closer to family and friends. When it comes to factors influencing neighborhood choice, younger generations cited convenience to jobs, affordability of homes, and quality of the school district. Older generations placed higher importance on convenience to family and friends and healthcare facilities.

When it comes to a home’s green features, younger buyers placed higher importance on commuting costs than older generations who placed higher importance on a home’s energy efficient features and living in an environmentally friendly community.

Millennials tended to make more compromises with their home purchase than any other generation. Millennials most often conceded on the price and size of the home, lot size, distance from job and style of home; whereas nearly half of Older Boomer and Silent Generation buyers made no compromises on their recent home purchase.

As the age of recent buyers increases so does the rate of owning more than one home; among Millennials, 8 percent own more than one home, which could include either a vacation home or investment property; compared to 21 percent of Gen X-ers, 28 percent of Younger Boomers, and 27 percent of Older Boomers, and 26 percent of the Silent Generation.

Home buyers of all ages often begin the home buying process by looking online for properties for sales; however, the frequency of use of the internet to search for homes decreases as age increases. Ninety percent of Millennials frequently used the internet to search for homes compared to less than half of Silent Generation buyers. Younger generations of buyers were also more likely to find the home they purchased through the internet; older buyers most often learned about the home they purchased from their real estate agent.

Buyers of all ages gain many benefits from working with a real estate professional. Among the age groups, younger buyers are more likely to want an agent’s help understanding the home buying process, presumably because many are buying a home for the first time. Younger buyers were most often referred to their agent by a friend, neighbor or relative whereas older buyers were increasingly likely to work with the same agent they previously used to buy or sell a home.

When it comes to choosing an agent, reputation was important to buyers of all ages; however, younger buyers more often cited an agent’s honesty and trustworthiness as the most important factor compared to older buyers who most often cited the agent’s knowledge of the neighborhood – perhaps because older buyers tend to move further distances and may have less familiarity with area.

The median down payment for Millennials was 5 percent, considerably less than older generations of buyers whose down payment ranged from 8 percent for Gen X buyers to 22 percent for Silent Generation buyers. Younger buyers who financed their home purchase most often relied on savings for their down payment whereas older buyers were more likely use proceeds from the sale of a primary residence.

“An interesting finding is that Older Boomers and Silent Generation buyers found the mortgage application and approval process more difficult than expected compared to younger buyers,” said Bishop. “This underscores the ongoing challenges that many credit worthy home buyers face with today’s tight credit standards.”

The largest group of recent home sellers was from Generation X, comprising 30 percent of recent sales, followed by Younger Boomers (21 percent), Older Boomers (21 percent) and the Silent Generation (19 percent). As the age of sellers increased, the share of married and unmarried couples declined and the percentage of single female home buyers increased, from 4 percent among Millennials to more than 17 percent among Boomer and Silent Generation sellers, perhaps due to death or divorce.

Like buyers, older sellers tend to move greater distances, and are more likely than younger generations to move out of the state or region. While younger buyers typically moved to larger, higher priced homes, the data shows a clear trend of downsizing to smaller, less expensive homes among the Older Boomer and Silent Generations.

Typically the older the seller the longer the tenure in the home, while Millennials had been in their previous home for a median of five years, Gen X-ers stayed 8 years, Younger Boomers owned their home for 11 years, Older Boomers stayed for 13 years, and the Silent Generation kept their previous home for 15 years.

The reasons for selling a home also varied among the generations. Younger buyers were more likely to move to accommodate job relocation or desired to upgrade to a larger home. In comparison, older buyers were often looking for a smaller home due to retirement and because upkeep was too difficult due to health or financial limitations, or to be closer to family or friends.

When it comes to negotiating, older sellers are often more willing to reduce their home’s asking price but are less likely to offer buyer incentives such as home warranty policies or assistance with closing costs.

Of sellers working with real estate agents, the study found that older generations of buyers are more likely to use full-service brokerages in which agents provide a broad range of services. While more than two-thirds of Millennials used full-service brokerages, they were more likely than other generations to choose limited service, which includes discount brokerage, or minimal service, such as simply listing the home on a multiple listing service, presumably because they have less equity in their home.

Sellers of all ages typically found a real estate agent through a referral or friend; however, younger sellers were more likely to use the same real estate broker or agent for their home purchase, 59 percent of Millennials used the same agent compared to 42 percent of Older Boomer sellers. Younger sellers typically want their selling agents help with selling the home within a specific timeframe and pricing the home competitively, whereas older buyers are looking for their agent’s help with marketing the home and finding a buyer.

For additional NAR commentary on the home buying habits of Millennials, watch this video.

NAR mailed an eight-page questionnaire in July 2012 to a national sample of 93,502 home buyers and sellers who purchased their homes between July 2011 and June 2012, according to county records and using the Tailored Survey Design Method. It generated 8,501 usable responses; the adjusted response rate was 9.1 percent. All information is characteristic of the 12-month period ending in June 2012 with the exception of income data, which are for 2011. Because of rounding and omissions for space, percentage distributions for some findings may not add up to 100 percent.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

Monday, July 8, 2013

Prices moving up, inventory tight.

Rod Sager

Our local market is reflecting upward trending prices and tight inventory. For buyers this means it is time to jump off the fence and into the market before your home buying dollars are squeezed too tight. For sellers, the time to list could be right now. There is no way to determine how long this upward pricing will continue. We could see extended growth over several years or we could see a top out and flat line next year. There are too many external factors that effect the real estate market to make an absolute assertion. What we do know is that right now we have low prices that are quickly rising and we have very low interest rates. This is a golden moment in real estate where a buyer can lock in a low interest rate for 30 years and take advantage of robust market appreciation. Below are some excerpts from a recent article posted by the National Association of Realtors®.

"WASHINGTON (June 20, 2013) – Existing-home sales improved in May and remain solidly above a year ago, while the median price continued to rise by double-digit rates from a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors®."


"Total existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 4.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.18 million in May from 4.97 million in April, and is 12.9 percent above the 4.59 million-unit pace in May 2012."

"Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the recovery is strengthening and to expect limited housing supplies for the balance of the year in much of the country. “The housing numbers are overwhelmingly positive. However, the number of available homes is unlikely to grow, despite a nice gain in May, unless new home construction ramps up quickly by an additional 50 percent,” he said. “The home price growth is too fast, and only additional supply from new homebuilding can moderate future price growth.”"

"Existing-home sales are at the highest level since November 2009 when the market jumped to 5.44 million as buyers took advantage of tax stimulus. Sales have stayed above year-ago levels for 23 months, while the national median price shows 15 consecutive months of year-over-year increases".

"NAR President Gary Thomas, broker-owner of Evergreen Realty in Villa Park, Calif., said market conditions today are vastly different than during the housing boom. “The boom period was marked by easy credit and overbuilding, but today we have tight mortgage credit and widespread shortages of homes for sale,” he said.“The issue now is pent-up demand and strong growth in the number of households, with buyer traffic 29 percent above a year ago, coinciding with several years of inadequate housing construction. These conditions are contributing to sustainable price growth,” Thomas said."

"Forty-five percent of all homes sold in May were on the market for less than a month. The median time on the market is the shortest since monthly tracking began in May 2011; on an annual basis, a separate NAR survey of home buyers and sellers shows the shortest selling time was 4 weeks in both 2004 and 2005."

"Single-family home sales rose 5.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.60 million in May from 4.38 million in April, and are 12.7 percent higher than the 4.08 million-unit pace in May 2012. The median existing single-family home price was $208,700 in May, up 15.8 percent above a year ago, the strongest increase since October 2005 when it jumped 16.9 percent from a year earlier."

"Existing-home sales in the West increased 2.5 percent to a pace of 1.23 million in May and are 7.0 percent above a year ago. With the tightest regional supply, the median price in the West was $276,400, up 19.9 percent from May 2012."

Monday, July 1, 2013

Tips for Buyers when evaluating an Inspection

Rod Sager

It is highly recommended that a buyer have an inspection completed by a licensed inspector before committing to a purchase. Here in Washington state we have a special form that typically accompanies an offer allowing the buyer to conduct and evaluate an inspection to determine that the house is suitable, safe and in good repair.

The primary purpose of the inspection is to have the house thoroughly reviewed by a professional that uses a standardized method of inspection. The inspector follows a procedure that is designed to make certain "no stone is left unturned". The buyer should use the information obtained in the report to determine several things. First, are there any genuine safety issues or serious defects that must be addressed prior to close? Second, are there issues that may affect the ability to finance the property? These two issues should be the buyer's primary concern. These are the items to ask the seller to remedy. Third, are the items that may be marginal or even defective but do not warrant the risk of launching a torpedo into the deal. It is a seller's market here in Southwest Washington as it is an many markets and seller's control the tempo of deal at the moment.

Buyers that ask for every little detail on the inspection report will likely find themselves looking for a new house over and over again. Inspections are designed to protect the buyer from serious hazards and excessive expenses, not to beat up the seller with the classic nickel and dime items. A notable exception might be a new construction home where the builder is on site and often willing attend to minor details since the expectation on a new home is rightfully higher.

Items that are generally of serious concern are things like, the roof, furnace, serious dry rot, wood destroying pests, etc. Financing a home using a government backed loan such as USDA, FHA or VA can also require some effort by the seller to comply. These loans require that no earth make contact with wood, crawl space vents are clear and secure, roof is in good shape with a 3-5 year life expectancy, no vegetation in contact with the siding, etc.

The remaining items of minor nature on the inspection report can be used as a "honey-do" list of things to tidy up after the buyer moves in. In our market we are seeing rising prices and interest rates. If a buyer crashes his deal on minor items that cost a few hundred dollars or even a thousand, they may very well pay more than that in higher home prices and monthly payments due to those increasing. A price increase of just one half of one percent on a $200,000 home is $1000 and we have seen prices rising at a rate closer to one percent per month over the last twelve months. It can be counter-productive for a buyer to kill a deal over the little stuff.

When evaluating your inspection try to keep everything in perspective. Keep in mind the idea of protecting yourself from exposure to serious expense or danger rather than nit-picking the seller. Look at the big picture before pounding the seller over that loose light switch cover the inspector found. This will help to ensure a smooth transaction and a more pleasant experience for all parties.